The Influence of the Fed Rate and the Dow Jones Index on the Movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) for the 2016-2025 Period

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of the Fed Rate and the Dow Jones Index on the movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) for the 2016-2025 period. This study uses a quantitative method with a saturated sampling technique, encompassing 10 years of reporting data on the Fed Rate, the Dow Jones Index, and the JCI. Data analysis techniques included classical assumption tests, regression analysis, correlation coefficients, coefficients of determination, and hypothesis testing. The results show that partially, the Fed Rate has a significant positive effect on the JCI with a coefficient of determination of 65.4% and a t-count of 2,442 > t-table 2,262. The Dow Jones Index also has a significant positive effect on the JCI with a coefficient of determination of 84.3% and a t-count of 4.425 > t-table 2.262. Simultaneously, the Fed Rate and the Dow Jones Index have a significant positive effect on the movement of the JCI with the regression equation $Y = 4051.111 + 127.109X_1 + 0.071X_2$. The simultaneous coefficient of determination is 76%, while the remaining 24% is influenced by other factors not examined in this study. The hypothesis test obtained an F-count > F-table (11,078 > 4,737). In conclusion, there is a significant effect of the Fed Rate and the Dow Jones Index on the movement of the Jakarta Composite Index.